TY - GEN
T1 - A Novel Framework for Predicting the Spread of COVID-19 by Contact Tracing Through Smartphone
AU - Shi, Jiayi
AU - Sheng, Weixue
AU - Kar, Pushpendu
AU - Roy, Monideepa
AU - Datta, Sujoy
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 IEEE
PY - 2021
Y1 - 2021
N2 - In recent times, COVID-19 is the most severe epidemic disease and it needs to be controlled as soon as possible. Promising ideas and mathematical models have been proposed to predict the number of infected people in a particular timeline and project its development tendency. In this paper, to further increase the accuracy of prediction, we propose a new model named AMSD model at an agent scale by combining three models that are widely used in this field: the social network model, the mobility model, and the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model. Initially, the mobility model could identify people's mobility patterns on weekdays and weekends, and during the day and at night. Then, by combining this model with the social network model, we could classify people by their social connections in the network, with a more accurate prediction of infected people. The basic SEIR model is enhanced to find the spread/growth of viruses between and within people and has four stages from susceptible to recovered. AMSD model, as the combination of these three models is a more comprehensive approach to better present and predict the propagation of COVID-19, which involves many more important social factors.
AB - In recent times, COVID-19 is the most severe epidemic disease and it needs to be controlled as soon as possible. Promising ideas and mathematical models have been proposed to predict the number of infected people in a particular timeline and project its development tendency. In this paper, to further increase the accuracy of prediction, we propose a new model named AMSD model at an agent scale by combining three models that are widely used in this field: the social network model, the mobility model, and the Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model. Initially, the mobility model could identify people's mobility patterns on weekdays and weekends, and during the day and at night. Then, by combining this model with the social network model, we could classify people by their social connections in the network, with a more accurate prediction of infected people. The basic SEIR model is enhanced to find the spread/growth of viruses between and within people and has four stages from susceptible to recovered. AMSD model, as the combination of these three models is a more comprehensive approach to better present and predict the propagation of COVID-19, which involves many more important social factors.
KW - COVID-19
KW - Contact tracing
KW - MCS
KW - Spreading map
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85125672239&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1109/IWCMC51323.2021.9498988
DO - 10.1109/IWCMC51323.2021.9498988
M3 - Conference contribution
AN - SCOPUS:85125672239
T3 - 2021 International Wireless Communications and Mobile Computing, IWCMC 2021
SP - 570
EP - 575
BT - 2021 International Wireless Communications and Mobile Computing, IWCMC 2021
PB - Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers Inc.
T2 - 17th IEEE International Wireless Communications and Mobile Computing, IWCMC 2021
Y2 - 28 June 2021 through 2 July 2021
ER -