Potential Gains in Health-Adjusted Life Expectancy by Reducing Burden of Noncommunicable Diseases in 188 Countries: A Population-Based Study

Jun Yan Xi, Wang Jian Zhang, Zhuo Chen, Yan Ting Zhang, Li Chang Chen, Yu Qin Zhang, Xiao Lin, Yuan Tao Hao

Research output: Journal PublicationArticlepeer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Objectives: This article quantifies the potential gains in health-adjusted life expectancy for people aged 30 to 70 years (HALE[30-70]) by examining the reductions in disability in addition to premature mortality from noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). Methods: We extracted data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 for 4 major NCDs (cancers, cardiovascular diseases, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes mellitus) in 188 countries from 2010 to 2019. Estimates of the potential gains in HALE[30-70] were based on a counterfactual analysis involving 3 alternative future scenarios: (1) achieve Sustainable Development Goals target 3.4 but do not make any progress on disability reduction, (2) achieve Sustainable Development Goals target 3.4 and eliminate NCD-related disability, and (3) eliminate all NCD-related mortality and disability. Results: In all scenarios, the high-income group has the greatest potential gains in HALE[30-70], above the global average. For all specific causes, potential gains in HALE[30-70] decrease as income levels fall. Across these 3 scenarios, the potential gains in HALE[30-70] globally of reducing premature mortality for 4 major NCDs are 3.13 years, 4.53 years, and 7.32 years, respectively. In scenario A, all income groups have the greatest potential gains in HALE[30-70] from diabetes and chronic respiratory diseases. In scenarios B and C, the high-income group has the greatest potential gains in HALE[30-70] from cancer intervention, and the other income groups have the greatest potential gains in HALE[30-70] from cardiovascular diseases intervention. Conclusion: Reducing premature death and disability from 4 major NCDs at once and attaching equal importance to each lead to a sizable improvement in HALE[30-70].

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)802-809
Number of pages8
JournalValue in Health
Volume26
Issue number6
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jun 2023

Keywords

  • Bayesian age-period-cohort model
  • Sustainable Development Goals
  • global health
  • health-adjusted life expectancy
  • noncommunicable diseases

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Health Policy
  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

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